Traditionally, the prices of ASIC miners have closely followed the fluctuations in BTC prices. However, since the beginning of 2023, an interesting trend has emerged – ASIC prices and BTC prices seem to be charting their own paths.
Here are the four key factors that might be contributing to this fascinating decoupling:
1️⃣ Bitcoin Halving Approaching: The upcoming April 2024 Bitcoin halving has miners cautious. Past halvings led to low post-halving ASIC prices followed by a surge.
2️⃣ Miner Liquidity Challenges: BTC miners facing liquidity issues due to overleveraging are selling equipment, causing ASIC prices and BTC prices to diverge.
3️⃣ Decline in Bitcoin Hashprice: Bitcoin's hashprice, tracked by Luxor Technology, the revenue per terahash, is consistently decreasing, impacting the mining ecosystem.
4️⃣ Influx of New Miners: Major players like BITMAIN, MicroBT and Canaan Inc. are rapidly releasing new mining machines, saturating the market and affecting pricing.
So what now? Blockstream has issued the Basic note, enabling investors to bet on an increase in ASIC prices. Such a note implies that ASIC prices could overcompensate BTC price growth. Other miners see the current pricing as an opportunity to expand.
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